Devon Carbon Plan Summary
This is a summary of the Devon Carbon Plan, it’s shorter than the full document and provides details about the key parts of the Plan. Local policy makers who want to know how the Devon Carbon Plan can influence their work would benefit from this version.
The Challenge and Opportunity of Climate Change
1.1 Global Effects and Impacts
Our planet’s climate is changing and warming is accelerating. Globally, 2010-2019 was the warmest decade since records began in 1850 and each decade since 1980 has been warmer than the preceding one.1 2020 and 2016 tie as the warmest years on record, which were 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels.2
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded it is unequivocal that emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by humans has warmed the atmosphere.3 The greenhouse effect occurs when GHGs in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide and methane, trap some of the sun’s heat. This process makes Earth warmer and over the last 12,000 years has allowed humanity to thrive.
However, the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and intensive agriculture have been changing the balance of the greenhouse effect. The increased levels of GHGs mean more heat is being trapped, causing our planet to warm at an unprecedented rate.4
This warming is causing more extreme storms, droughts, heat waves, melting ice, ocean acidification and rising sea levels. The impacts of these changes are widespread (see Figure 1.1).
Climate change is not simply an environmental problem. It has been described as “humanity’s greatest threat“ by Sir David Attenborough;5 as the “biggest threat to the global economy” by the World Economic Forum;6 as the “greatest threat to global security” by the UN Security Council;7 and the “greatest ever threat to human rights” by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.8
1.2 Evidence of Climate Change in the UK and Devon
The UK’s warmest ten years ever recorded have all been since 2002.10 The hottest ever recorded temperature of 40.3°C occurred in July 2022, smashing the previous record of 38.7°C observed in 2019,11 which also saw:
- the warmest winter temperature
- the warmest December temperature
- the warmest February temperature
- the highest minimum February temperature.12
The most recent decade (2012 -2021) has seen the UK experience 21% fewer days of air frost, 15% more summer rainfall, 26% more winter rainfall and 8% more annual sunshine than the 1961-1990 average. Five of the ten wettest years in the UK series from 1836 have occurred this century (2000, 2020, 2012, 2008 and 2014).13 The first signs of spring are, on average, occurring 9 days earlier than they were in the first part of the 20th century.14
Exmouth has recorded a temperature increase of 1.05°C since 1900 and Ilfracombe 0.64°C.15 In comparison to the 1961 – 1990 average, south west England now experiences almost 10% more rainfall each year. Winters have got wetter and summers have got drier; the South West receives 28% more precipitation in autumn, almost 16% more in winter and approaching 9% less in summer.16
Relative sea level in south west England has risen by 25cm since 1916.17
1.3 Climate Projections
If we continue emitting GHG emissions as if it’s “business as usual”, by the end of the 21st century the central estimate of change of Devon’s average summer temperature is projected to increase by 5.6°C and average winter temperature by 3.4°C in comparison to the 1961-1990 average. Compared to the same period, average winter precipitation is projected to increase by 28% whereas average summer precipitation is forecast to decrease by 44%. Relative sea level is very likely to rise by more than 43cm but less than 90cm.17
Although these numbers may seem small, the knock-on effects from them will be substantially larger and disrupt our current quality of life. As the climate continues to change, the scale and frequency of impacts will increase. The science is clear: we are in a climate emergency and need to reduce carbon emissions rapidly to maximise the chance of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C.
1.4 Climate Justice
Developing countries and small island states will see the most severe effects and impacts18 because they are less able to adapt.9 Warming of 2°C would put over half of Africa’s population at risk of undernourishment which, at the current rate of global warming, could be reached as early as 2030.19 This raises profound issues for global climate justice because it is the more developed countries, through earlier industrialisation, that have caused the climate emergency: countries such as ours have a moral duty to act. Limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, could reduce the number of people exposed to climate-related risks and poverty globally by several hundred million by 2050.18
These climate injustices are not just felt overseas. In the UK, disadvantaged and less affluent groups are responsible for the least carbon emissions, yet they are most likely to be negatively affected by climate change. Indeed, the effects of climate change can make disadvantage worse, which in turn increases vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, such as flooding or heatwaves.
1.5 The Opportunity
Addressing the climate and ecological emergency is an opportunity to create a fairer, healthier, more resilient and more prosperous society. Those most affected by climate change need more of a say in how we respond, and policy makers’ actions to mitigate climate change must be aligned with goals for public health improvement, green growth and the reduction of social vulnerability.20
Encouraging everyone to be more active by walking and cycling; improving air quality through the electrification of vehicles; insulating our homes to make them warmer; and eating more balanced diets will all improve public health and reduce pressures on the NHS.21
There is considerable potential for the transition to clean technologies to create new jobs and skills requirements, improve energy security and increase economic prosperity. Retrofitting energy efficiency measures into housing will reduce fuel poverty and illnesses associated with cold homes and subsequently provide enhanced opportunities for work and study.21
Enhancing the ability of habitats to store carbon offers tremendous opportunities to reverse the decline of biodiversity and restore the benefits healthy ecosystems provide. These include reduced flood risk, improved water and air quality, nutritious food, timber and fuel, and accessible greenspace.
1.6 References
1 World Meteorological Organisation (2020) WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland. Available at: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10211
2 NASA (2021) 2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record. https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020-tied-for-warmest-year-on-record-nasa-analysis-shows
3 IPCC (2021) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. (eds)] Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf
4 IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
5 BBC News (2018) Sir David Attenborough: Climate change ‘our greatest threat’. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46398057
6 UNFCC (2016), Climate Change is Biggest Threat to Global Economy. Available at: https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-is-biggest-threat-to-global-economy
7 Parry, E.J. (2007) The Greatest Threat to Global Security: Climate change is not merely an environmental problem, UN Chronicle. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/greatest-threat-global-security-climate-change-not-merely-environmental-problem
8 The Guardian (2019), Climate crisis is greatest ever threat to human rights, UN warns. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/sep/09/climate-crisis-human-rights-un-michelle-bachelet-united-nations
9 Met Office (Unknown) Effects of Climate Change. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/effects-of-climate-change
10 Kendon, M. et al. (2019) State of the UK Climate 2018.International Journal of Climatology, 39 (S1), pp.1-55. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6213
11 Met Office (2022) A milestone in UK climate history. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/july-heat-review
12 Kendon, M. et al. (2020) State of the UK Climate 2020. International Journal of Climatology. 40(S1). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6726
13 Kendon, M. et al. (2022) State of the UK Climate 2021. International Journal of Climatology. 42(S1). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7787
14 JNCC (2021) Spring Index Available at: https://jncc.gov.uk/our-work/ukbi-b4-spring-index/
15 Devon Local Nature Partnership (2019) Climate Change and Energy. Available at: https://www.naturaldevon.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Climate-Change-and-Energy.pdf
16 Jenkins, G.J. et al. (2008) The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. Available at: https://www.ukcip.org.uk/wp-content/PDFs/UKCP09_Trends.pdf
17 UK Climate Impacts Programme (2018) UKCP2018. UKCIP. Available at: http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/
18 IPCC (2018): Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. (eds.)]. In Press. Available at: Summary for Policymakers — Global Warming of 1.5 ºC (ipcc.ch)
19 United Nations (2019) Climate Justice. Available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/climate-justice/
20 Preston, I. et al. (2014) Climate Change and Social Justice: An Evidence Review. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Available at: https://www.cse.org.uk/downloads/reports-and-publications/energy-justice/climate%20change%20and%20social%20justice%20evidence%20review.pdf
21 Jennings, N. et al. (2019), Co-benefits of climate change mitigation in the UK: What issues are the UK public concerned about and how can action on climate change help to address them?, Grantham Institute Briefing Paper, 31, Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London. Available at: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/2019/co-benefits-of-climate-change-mitigation-in-the-uk-what-issues-are-the-uk-public-concerned-about-and-how-can-action-on-climate-change-help-to-address-them.php (click here to view)
Devon Carbon Plan, The Challenge and Opportunity713Kendon, M. et al. (2022) State of the UK Climate 2021. International Journal of Climatology. 42(S1). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.778714JNCC (2021) Spring IndexAvailable at: https://jncc.gov.uk/our-work/ukbi-b4-spring-index/15Devon Local Nature Partnership (2019) Climate Change and Energy. Available at: https://www.naturaldevon.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Climate-Change-and-Energy.pdf16Jenkins, G.J.et al. (2008)The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. Available at: https://www.ukcip.org.uk/wp-content/PDFs/UKCP09_Trends.pdf17UK Climate Impacts Programme (2018) UKCP2018. UKCIP. Available at: http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/18IPCC (2018): Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty[Masson-Delmotte, V.et al. (eds.)]. In Press. Available at: Summary for Policymakers —Global Warming of 1.5 ºC (ipcc.ch)19United Nations (2019) Climate Justice. Available at:https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/climate-justice/. 020Preston, I. et al. (2014) Climate Change and Social Justice: An Evidence Review. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Available at: https://www.cse.org.uk/downloads/reports-and-publications/energy-justice/climate%20change%20and%20social%20justice%20evidence%20review.pdf21Jennings, N. et al. (2019), Co-benefits of climate change mitigation in the UK: What issues are the UK public concerned about and how can action on climate change help to address them?, Grantham Institute Briefing Paper, 31, Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London. Available at: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/2019/co-benefits-of-climate-change-mitigation-in-the-uk-what-issues-are-the-uk-public-concerned-about-and-how-can-action-on-climate-change-help-to-address-them.php
