1. The Challenge and Opportunity of Climate Change (Summary)

The UK’s warmest ten years ever recorded have all been since 2002.⁴ The hottest ever recorded temperature of 40.3°C occurred in July 2022, shattering the previous record of 38.7°C observed in 2019.⁵

The most recent decade (2012 -2021) has seen the UK experience 21% fewer days of air frost, 15% more summer rainfall and 26% more winter rainfall than the 1961-1990 average. Five of the ten wettest years since 1836 have occurred this century (2000, 2020, 2012, 2008 and 2014).⁶ 

Regional variations in climate change are also seen in Devon and Southwest England. Exmouth has recorded a mean temperature increase of 1.05°C since 1900 and Ilfracombe 0.64°C.⁷  In comparison to the 1961 – 1990 average, the South West receives 28% more precipitation in autumn, almost 16% more in winter and approaching 9% less in summer.⁸ Relative sea level in Southwest England has risen by 25cm since 1916.⁹

If we continue emitting GHG emissions at current rates, Devon’s average summer temperature could increase by 5.6°C and average winter temperature by 3.4°C by the end of the 21^st century compared with the 1961-1990 average. Average winter precipitation could also increase by 28%, whereas average summer precipitation is forecast to decrease by 44%. Relative sea level is very likely to rise by between 43cm and 90cm.⁹  

The science indicates very clearly that we are in a climate emergency and need to reduce carbon emissions rapidly to maximise the chances of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C. 

Developing countries and small island states will see the most severe effects and impacts¹⁰ because they are less able to adapt.⁸ This raises profound issues for global climate justice because it is more developed countries that industrialised earlier which have contributed most to the climate emergency. Countries such as ours have a moral duty to act. 

Addressing the climate and ecological emergency is an opportunity to create a fairer, healthier, more resilient and more prosperous society.¹¹ 

Encouraging everyone to be more active by walking and cycling; improving air quality through the electrification of vehicles; insulating our homes to make them warmer; and eating more balanced diets will all improve public health and reduce pressures on the NHS.¹²

There is considerable potential for the transition to clean technologies to create new jobs and skills requirements, improve energy security and increase economic prosperity.¹²

Enhancing the ability of habitats to store carbon offers tremendous opportunities to reverse the decline of biodiversity. 

¹  IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ 

²  NASA (2021) 2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record. https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020-tied-for-warmest-year-on-record-nasa-analysis-shows 

³  IPCC (2021) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. (eds)] Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf 

⁴  Kendon, M. et al. (2019) State of the UK Climate 2018. International Journal of Climatology, 39 (S1), pp.1-55. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6213 

⁵  Met Office (2022) A milestone in UK climate history. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/july-heat-review 

⁶  Kendon, M. et al. (2022) State of the UK Climate 2021. International Journal of Climatology. 42 (S1). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7787 

⁷  Devon Local Nature Partnership (2019) Climate Change and Energy. Available at: https://www.naturaldevon.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Climate-Change-and-Energy.pdf 

⁸  Jenkins, G.J. et al. (2008) The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. Available at: https://www.ukcip.org.uk/wp-content/PDFs/UKCP09_Trends.pdf 

⁹  UK Climate Impacts Programme (2018) UKCP2018. UKCIP. Available at: http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/ 

¹⁰  IPCC (2018): Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. (eds.)]. In Press. Available at: Summary for Policymakers — Global Warming of 1.5 ºC (ipcc.ch) 

¹¹  Preston, I. et al. (2014) Climate Change and Social Justice: An Evidence Review. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Available at: https://www.cse.org.uk/downloads/reports-and-publications/energy-justice/climate%20change%20and%20social%20justice%20evidence%20review.pdf 

¹²  Jennings, N. et al. (2019), Co-benefits of climate change mitigation in the UK: What issues are the UK public concerned about and how can action on climate change help to address them?, Grantham Institute Briefing Paper, 31, Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London. Available at: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/2019/co-benefits-of-climate-change-mitigation-in-the-uk-what-issues-are-the-uk-public-concerned-about-and-how-can-action-on-climate-change-help-to-address-them.php